Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 127,153
2 South Dakota 121,154
3 Rhode Island 105,491
4 Utah 105,199
5 Tennessee 101,906
6 Arizona 100,049
7 Wisconsin 100,040
8 Iowa 99,492
9 Nebraska 97,183
10 Oklahoma 94,732
11 Arkansas 94,340
12 Kansas 93,439
13 Indiana 91,546
14 Alabama 90,351
15 Idaho 89,634
16 Mississippi 89,090
17 Nevada 88,313
18 Wyoming 88,226
19 Illinois 87,389
20 Montana 85,990
21 Louisiana 83,019
22 South Carolina 81,848
23 California 81,303
24 New Mexico 80,929
25 Minnesota 80,829
26 Georgia 79,777
27 Missouri 78,845
28 Kentucky 78,667
29 Texas 78,300
30 Delaware 77,216
31 Florida 77,203
32 New Jersey 75,088
33 Ohio 74,313
34 Massachusetts 73,077
35 Alaska 72,532
36 New York 69,289
37 North Carolina 69,142
38 Connecticut 68,334
39 Colorado 67,588
40 West Virginia 64,636
41 Pennsylvania 63,557
42 Michigan 59,923
43 Maryland 56,793
44 Virginia 56,073
45 District of Columbia 50,308
46 New Hampshire 46,162
47 Washington 40,248
48 Puerto Rico 39,205
49 Oregon 32,858
50 Maine 27,559
51 Vermont 17,892
52 Hawaii 17,804

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 822
2 South Carolina 791
3 Oklahoma 746
4 Delaware 670
5 New York 655
6 Rhode Island 635
7 New Jersey 621
8 California 603
9 Massachusetts 591
10 Virginia 580
11 Georgia 565
12 Connecticut 543
13 North Carolina 516
14 Kentucky 514
15 Texas 483
16 Florida 474
17 Alabama 470
18 Mississippi 445
19 New Hampshire 445
20 Utah 431
21 Ohio 418
22 West Virginia 413
23 Louisiana 407
24 Nevada 396
25 Indiana 386
26 Arkansas 366
27 Pennsylvania 357
28 Tennessee 349
29 Maryland 343
30 New Mexico 312
31 Illinois 301
32 Kansas 298
33 Missouri 292
34 District of Columbia 283
35 Wyoming 275
36 Wisconsin 256
37 Puerto Rico 241
38 Montana 237
39 Colorado 235
40 Iowa 233
41 Nebraska 232
42 Alaska 222
43 Idaho 220
44 Vermont 216
45 Minnesota 207
46 Maine 191
47 South Dakota 174
48 Washington 172
49 Michigan 157
50 Oregon 138
51 North Dakota 134
52 Hawaii 90

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,361
2 New York 2,163
3 Massachusetts 2,057
4 Rhode Island 1,991
5 Mississippi 1,941
6 Connecticut 1,938
7 South Dakota 1,927
8 North Dakota 1,884
9 Louisiana 1,847
10 Arizona 1,681
11 Illinois 1,637
12 Pennsylvania 1,614
13 Arkansas 1,540
14 Michigan 1,522
15 New Mexico 1,506
16 Indiana 1,444
17 Iowa 1,422
18 Alabama 1,358
19 Nevada 1,309
20 Tennessee 1,285
21 South Carolina 1,272
22 District of Columbia 1,245
23 Kansas 1,243
24 Texas 1,215
25 Georgia 1,214
26 Florida 1,184
27 Maryland 1,141
28 Missouri 1,135
29 Minnesota 1,093
30 Delaware 1,077
31 Montana 1,077
32 Wisconsin 1,065
33 West Virginia 1,059
34 Nebraska 1,019
35 Wyoming 986
36 Colorado 972
37 California 949
38 Idaho 944
39 Ohio 921
40 North Carolina 836
41 Kentucky 834
42 Oklahoma 832
43 New Hampshire 728
44 Virginia 712
45 Puerto Rico 556
46 Washington 554
47 Utah 498
48 Oregon 448
49 Maine 406
50 Alaska 341
51 Vermont 274
52 Hawaii 239

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Montana 14
2 New Mexico 12
3 Alabama 11
4 Arkansas 11
5 Arizona 10
6 California 9
7 Massachusetts 9
8 New York 9
9 South Carolina 9
10 Connecticut 8
11 Michigan 8
12 North Carolina 8
13 Oklahoma 8
14 Pennsylvania 8
15 Rhode Island 8
16 Texas 8
17 Delaware 7
18 Georgia 7
19 Kentucky 7
20 Louisiana 7
21 Mississippi 7
22 Nevada 7
23 South Dakota 7
24 West Virginia 7
25 Florida 6
26 District of Columbia 5
27 Illinois 5
28 Maryland 5
29 Indiana 4
30 Nebraska 4
31 New Hampshire 4
32 Ohio 4
33 Colorado 3
34 Idaho 3
35 Minnesota 3
36 New Jersey 3
37 North Dakota 3
38 Tennessee 3
39 Virginia 3
40 Wisconsin 3
41 Alaska 2
42 Hawaii 2
43 Kansas 2
44 Utah 2
45 Iowa 1
46 Maine 1
47 Missouri 1
48 Oregon 1
49 Puerto Rico 1
50 Vermont 1
51 Washington 1
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 291,041 1 99
Dewey South Dakota 234,895 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 230,190 3 99
Bent Colorado 230,052 4 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 228,936 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 119,364 242 92
Richland South Carolina 82,180 1401 55
York South Carolina 75,280 1763 43
Orange California 74,852 1779 43
Pierce Washington 37,491 2889 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,452 4 99
Grant Nebraska 6,421 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 998 1907 39
Richland South Carolina 948 1983 36
Orange California 851 2121 32
York South Carolina 758 2265 27
Pierce Washington 493 2644 15

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons